Characterization of a Novel CD4 Mimetic Compound YIR-821 against HIV-1 Clinical Isolates.

Small CD4-mimetic compound (CD4mc), which inhibits the interaction between gp120 with CD4, acts as an entry inhibitor and induces structural changes in the HIV-1 envelope glycoprotein trimer (Env) through its insertion within the Phe43 cavity of gp120. We recently developed YIR-821, a novel CD4mc, that has potent antiviral activity and lower toxicity than the prototype NBD-556. To assess the possibility of clinical application of YIR-821, we tested its antiviral activity using a panel of HIV-1 pseudoviruses from different subtypes. YIR-821 displayed entry inhibitor activity against 53.5% (21/40) of the pseudoviruses tested and enhanced neutralization mediated by coreceptor binding site (CoRBS) antibodies in 50% (16/32) of these. Furthermore, when we assessed the antiviral effects using a panel of pseudoviruses and autologous plasma IgG, enhancement of antibody-mediated neutralization activity was observed for 48% (15/31) of subtype B strains and 51% (28/55) of non-B strains. The direct antiviral activity of YIR-821 as an entry inhibitor was observed in 53% of both subtype B (27/51) and non-B subtype (40/75) pseudoviruses. Enhancement of antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity was also observed with YIR-821 for all six selected clinical isolates, as well as for the transmitted/founder (T/F) CH58 virus-infected cells. The sequence diversity in the CD4 binding site as well as other regions, such as the gp120 inner domain layers or gp41, may be involved in the multiple mechanisms related to the sensitive/resistant phenotype of the virus to YIR-821. Our findings may facilitate the clinical application of YIR-821. IMPORTANCE Small CD4-mimetic compound (CD4mc) interacts with the Phe43 cavity and triggers conformational changes, enhancing antibody-mediated neutralization and antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC). Here, we evaluated the effect of YIR-821, a novel CD4mc, against clinical isolates, including both subtype B and non-B subtype viruses. Our results confirm the desirable properties of YIR-821, which include entry inhibition, enhancement of IgG-neutralization, binding, and ADCC, in addition to low toxicity and long half-life in a rhesus macaque model, that might facilitate the clinical application of this novel CD4mc. Our observation of primary viruses that are resistant to YIR-821 suggests that further development of CD4mcs with different structural properties is required.

Early Post-Vaccination Gene Signatures Correlate With the Magnitude and Function of Vaccine-Induced HIV Envelope-Specific Plasma Antibodies in Infant Rhesus Macaques.

A better understanding of the impact of early innate immune responses after vaccine priming on vaccine-elicited adaptive immune responses could inform rational design for effective HIV vaccines. The current study compared the whole blood molecular immune signatures of a 3M-052-SE adjuvanted HIV Env protein vaccine to a regimen combining the adjuvanted Env protein with simultaneous administration of a modified Vaccinia Ankara vector expressing HIV Env in infant rhesus macaques at days 0, 1, and 3 post vaccine prime. Both vaccines induced a rapid innate response, evident by elevated inflammatory plasma cytokines and altered gene expression. We identified 25 differentially-expressed genes (DEG) on day 1 compared to day 0 in the HIV protein vaccine group. In contrast, in the group that received both the Env protein and the MVA-Env vaccine only two DEG were identified, implying that the MVA-Env modified the innate response to the adjuvanted protein vaccine. By day 3, only three DEG maintained altered expression, indicative of the transient nature of the innate response. The DEG represented immune pathways associated with complement activation, type I interferon and interleukin signaling, pathogen sensing, and induction of adaptive immunity. DEG expression on day 1 was correlated to Env-specific antibody responses, in particular antibody-dependent cytotoxicity responses at week 34, and Env-specific follicular T helper cells. Results from network analysis supported the interaction of DEG and their proteins in B cell activation. These results emphasize that vaccine-induced HIV-specific antibody responses can be optimized through the modulation of the innate response to the vaccine prime.

Differential V2-directed antibody responses in non-human primates infected with SHIVs or immunized with diverse HIV vaccines.

V2p and V2i antibodies (Abs) that are specific for epitopes in the V1V2 region of the HIV gp120 envelope (Env) do not effectively neutralize HIV but mediate Fc-dependent anti-viral activities that have been correlated with protection from, or control of HIV, SIV and SHIV infections. Here, we describe a novel molecular toolbox that allows the discrimination of antigenically and functionally distinct polyclonal V2 Ab responses. We identify different patterns of V2 Ab induction by SHIV infection and three separate vaccine regimens that aid in fine-tuning an optimized immunization protocol for inducing V2p and V2i Abs. We observe no, or weak and sporadic V2p and V2i Abs in non-vaccinated SHIV-infected NHPs, but strong V2p and/or V2i Ab responses after immunization with a V2-targeting vaccine protocol. The V2-focused vaccination is superior to both natural infection and to immunization with whole Env constructs for inducing functional V2p- and V2i-specific responses. Strikingly, levels of V2-directed Abs correlate inversely with Abs specific for peptides of V3 and C5. These data demonstrate that a V1V2-targeting vaccine has advantages over the imprecise targeting of SIV/SHIV infections and of whole Env-based immunization regimens for inducing a more focused functional V2p- and V2i-specific Ab response.

Anti-HIV antibody development up to 1 year after antiretroviral therapy initiation in acute HIV infection.

Early initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in acute HIV infection (AHI) is effective at limiting seeding of the HIV viral reservoir, but little is known about how the resultant decreased antigen load affects long-term Ab development after ART. We report here that Env-specific plasma antibody (Ab) levels and Ab-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) increased during the first 24 weeks of ART and correlated with Ab levels persisting after 48 weeks of ART. Participants treated in AHI stage 1 had lower Env-specific Ab levels and ADCC activity on ART than did those treated later. Importantly, participants who initiated ART after peak viremia in AHI developed elevated cross-clade ADCC responses that were detectable 1 year after ART initiation, even though clinically undetectable viremia was reached by 24 weeks. These data suggest that there is more germinal center (GC) activity in the later stages of AHI and that Ab development continues in the absence of detectable viremia during the first year of suppressive ART. The development of therapeutic interventions that can enhance earlier development of GCs in AHI and Abs after ART initiation could provide important protection against the viral reservoir that is seeded in individuals treated early in the disease.

Selection of HIV Envelope Strains for Standardized Assessments of Vaccine-Elicited Antibody-Dependent Cellular Cytotoxicity-Mediating Antibodies.

Antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) has been correlated with reduced risk of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection in several preclinical vaccine trials and in the RV144 clinical trial, indicating that this is a relevant antibody function to study. Given the diversity of HIV-1, the breadth of vaccine-induced antibody responses is a critical parameter to understand if a universal vaccine is to be realized. Moreover, the breadth of ADCC responses can be influenced by different vaccine strategies and regimens, including adjuvants. Therefore, to accurately evaluate ADCC and to compare vaccine regimens, it is important to understand the range of HIV Envelope (Env) susceptibility to these responses. These evaluations have been limited because of the complexity of the assay and the lack of a comprehensive panel of viruses for the assessment of these humoral responses. Here, we used 29 HIV-1 infectious molecular clones (IMCs) representing different Envelope subtypes and circulating recombinant forms to characterize susceptibility to ADCC from antibodies in plasma from infected individuals, including 13 viremic individuals, 10 controllers, and six with broadly neutralizing antibody responses. We found in our panel that ADCC susceptibility of the IMCs in our panel did not cluster by subtype, infectivity, level of CD4 downregulation, level of shedding, or neutralization sensitivity. Using partitioning around medoids (PAM) clustering to distinguish smaller groups of IMCs with similar ADCC susceptibility, we identified nested panels of four to eight IMCs that broadly represent the ADCC susceptibility of the entire 29-IMC panel. These panels, together with reagents developed to specifically accommodate circulating viruses at the geographical sites of vaccine trials, will provide a powerful tool to harmonize ADCC data generated across different studies and to detect common themes of ADCC responses elicited by various vaccines. IMPORTANCE Antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) responses were found to correlate with reduced risk of infection in the RV144 trial of the only human HIV-1 vaccine to show any efficacy to date. However, reagents to understand the breadth and magnitude of these responses across preclinical and clinical vaccine trials remain underdeveloped. In this study, we characterize HIV-1 infectious molecular clones encoding 29 distinct Envelope strains (Env-IMCs) to understand factors that impact virus susceptibility to ADCC and use statistical methods to identify smaller nested panels of four to eight Env-IMCs that accurately represent the full set. These reagents can be used as standardized reagents across studies to fully understand how ADCC may affect efficacy of future vaccine studies and how studies differ in the breadth of responses developed.

A simple algorithm for selecting cases to investigate acute and early HIV infections in low- and middle-income countries.

We documented the outcome of an over 10-year (2011-2021) effort to diagnose acute and early HIV infections (AEHI) in an Infectious Diseases Outpatient Clinic with limited resources. Of a total of 132, 119 HIV-RNA tests were performed from 2017 to 2020, 12 cases were identified, using a simple algorithm: risk exposure of 6 weeks or less before the visit and/or symptoms compatible with acute retroviral syndrome 7-30 days after exposure and/or undetermined 3rd generation rapid diagnostic test or serology. AEHI diagnoses varied from 2.4% among asymptomatic to 25% for undetermined serology cases using this simple screening applicable to different settings.

Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus T cell responses in HIV seronegative individuals from rural Uganda.

T cell responses to Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV) are likely essential in the control of KSHV infection and protection from associated disease, but remain poorly characterised. KSHV prevalence in rural Uganda is high at >90%. Here we investigate IFN- γ T cell responses to the KSHV proteome in HIV-negative individuals from a rural Ugandan population. We use an ex-vivo IFN- γ ELISpot assay with overlapping peptide pools spanning 83 KSHV open reading frames (ORF) on peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from 116 individuals. KSHV-specific T cell IFN- γ responses are of low intensity and heterogeneous, with no evidence of immune dominance; by contrast, IFN- γ responses to Epstein-Barr virus, Cytomegalovirus and influenza peptides are frequent and intense. Individuals with KSHV DNA in PBMC have higher IFN- γ responses to ORF73 (p = 0.02) and lower responses to K8.1 (p = 0.004) when compared with those without KSHV DNA. In summary, we demonstrate low intensity, heterogeneous T cell responses to KSHV in immune-competent individuals.

Anti-Drug Antibodies in Pigtailed Macaques Receiving HIV Broadly Neutralising Antibody PGT121.

Broadly neutralising antibodies (bNAbs) may play an important role in future strategies for HIV control. The development of anti-drug antibody (ADA) responses can reduce the efficacy of passively transferred bNAbs but the impact of ADA is imperfectly understood. We previously showed that therapeutic administration of the anti-HIV bNAb PGT121 (either WT or LALA version) controlled viraemia in pigtailed macaques with ongoing SHIV infection. We now report on 23 macaques that had multiple treatments with PGT121. We found that an increasing number of intravenous doses of PGT121 or human IgG1 isotype control antibodies (2-4 doses) results in anti-PGT121 ADA induction and low plasma concentrations of PGT121. ADA was associated with poor or absent suppression of SHIV viremia. Notably, ADA within macaque plasma recognised another human bNAb 10E8 but did not bind to the variable domains of PGT121, suggesting that ADA were primarily directed against the constant regions of the human antibodies. These findings have implications for the development of preclinical studies examining multiple infusions of human bNAbs.

Are HIV-1-Specific Antibody Levels Potentially Useful Laboratory Markers to Estimate HIV Reservoir Size? A Review.

Despite the benefits achieved by the widespread availability of modern antiretroviral therapy (ART), HIV RNA integration into the host cell genome is responsible for the creation of latent HIV reservoirs, and represents a significant impediment to completely eliminating HIV infection in a patient via modern ART alone. Several methods to measure HIV reservoir size exist; however, simpler, cheaper, and faster tools are required in the quest for total HIV cure. Over the past few years, measurement of HIV-specific antibodies has evolved into a promising option for measuring HIV reservoir size, as they can be measured via simple, well-known techniques such as the western blot and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). In this article, we re-visit the dynamic evolution of HIV-1-specific antibodies and the factors that may influence their levels in the circulation of HIV-positive individuals. Then, we describe the currently-known relationship between HIV-1-specific antibodies and HIV reservoir size based on study of data from contemporary literature published during the past 5 years. We conclude by highlighting current trends, and discussing the individual HIV-specific antibody that is likely to be the most reliable antibody for potential future utilization for quantification of HIV reservoir size.

Pre-existing infant antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity associates with reduced HIV-1 acquisition and lower morbidity.

In humans, pre-existing anti-HIV-1 neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) have not been associated with decreased HIV-1 acquisition. Here, we evaluate antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) present in pre-transmission infant and maternal plasma and breast milk (BM) against the contemporaneous maternal HIV-1 variants. HIV-1-exposed uninfected compared with HIV-1-exposed infected infants have higher ADCC and a combination of ADCC and nAb responses against their corresponding mother's strains. ADCC does not correlate with nAbs, suggesting they are independent activities. The infected infants with high ADCC compared with low ADCC, but not those with higher ADCC plus nAbs, have lower morbidity up to 1 year after birth. A higher IgA to IgG ratio, observed in BM supernatants and in a higher proportion of the infected compared with the uninfected infants, associates with lower ADCC. Against the exposure strains, ADCC, more than nAbs, associates with both lower mother-to-child transmission and decreased post-infection infant morbidity.

Predicting, Diagnosing, and Treating Acute and Early HIV Infection in a Public Sector Facility in Eswatini.

BACKGROUND: The lack of acute and early HIV infection (AEHI) diagnosis and care contributes to high HIV incidence in resource-limited settings. We aimed to assess the yield of AEHI, predict and diagnose AEHI, and describe AEHI care outcomes in a public sector setting in Eswatini. SETTING: This study was conducted in Nhlangano outpatient department from March 2019 to March 2020. METHODS: Adults at risk of AEHI underwent diagnostic testing for AEHI with the quantitative Xpert HIV-1 viral load (VL) assay. AEHI was defined as the detection of HIV-1 VL on Xpert and either an HIV-seronegative or HIV-serodiscordant third-generation antibody-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) result. First, the cross-sectional analysis obtained the yield of AEHI and established a predictor risk score for the prediction of AEHI using Lasso logistic regression. Second, diagnostic accuracy statistics described the ability of the fourth-generation antibody/p24 antigen-based Alere HIV-Combo RDT to diagnose AEHI (vs Xpert VL testing). Third, we described acute HIV infection care outcomes of AEHI-positive patients using survival analysis. RESULTS: Of 795 HIV-seronegative/HIV-serodiscordant outpatients recruited, 30 (3.8%, 95% confidence interval: 2.6% to 5.3%) had AEHI. The predictor risk score contained several factors (HIV-serodiscordant RDT, women, feeling at risk of HIV, swollen glands, and fatigue) and had sensitivity and specificity of 83.3% and 65.8%, respectively, to predict AEHI. The HIV-Combo RDT had sensitivity and specificity of 86.2% and 99.9%, respectively, to diagnose AEHI. Of 30 AEHI-positive patients, the 1-month cumulative treatment initiation was 74% (95% confidence interval: 57% to 88%), and the 3-month viral suppression (<1000 copies/mL) was 87% (67% to 98%). CONCLUSION: AEHI diagnosis and care seem possible in resource-limited settings.

Validation of a Triplex Pharmacokinetic Assay for Simultaneous Quantitation of HIV-1 Broadly Neutralizing Antibodies PGT121, PGDM1400, and VRC07-523-LS.

The outcome of the recent Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials that tested infusion of the broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) VRC01 provides proof of concept for blocking infection from sensitive HIV-1 strains. These results also open up the possibility that triple combinations of bnAbs such as PGT121, PGDM1400, as well as long-lasting LS variants such as VRC07-523 LS, have immunoprophylactic potential. PGT121 and PGDM1400 target the HIV-1 V3 and V2 glycan regions of the gp120 envelope protein, respectively, while VRC07-523LS targets the HIV-1 CD4 binding site. These bnAbs demonstrate neutralization potency and complementary breadth of HIV-1 strain coverage. An important clinical trial outcome is the accurate measurement of in vivo concentrations of passively infused bnAbs to determine effective doses for therapy and/or prevention. Standardization and validation of this testing method is a key element for clinical studies as is the ability to simultaneously detect multiple bnAbs in a specific manner. Here we report the development of a sensitive, specific, accurate, and precise multiplexed microsphere-based assay that simultaneously quantifies the respective physiological concentrations of passively infused bnAbs in human serum to ultimately define the threshold needed for protection from HIV-1 infection.

Screening of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) among Newly Diagnosed Tuberculosis Patients in Eastern Sudan.

Tuberculosis (TB) is a leading cause of death in patients infected with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), and HIV infection is the most potent risk factor for the development of active TB disease from a latent TB infection. This study aims to determine the seroprevalence of HIV among newly diagnosed TB patients in Kassala state eastern Sudan. This was a descriptive, hospital-based, cross-sectional study of 251 active and newly diagnosed TB patients, selected by simple random sampling. Blood samples and demographic data were collected from each patient. TB was diagnosed by direct ZN smear and molecular detection by Xpert MTB/RIF. The serum samples were tested for HIV using 4th generation enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The prevalence of HIV was 13.9% (35/251), the infection rate among pulmonary TB was 17%, whereas that in extrapulmonary TB was 4.8%, the prevalence was (18.2%) in the males, and (7.2%) in the females. In conclusion: TB/HIV co-infection in the Eastern part of Sudan was high compared with the global prevalence, all TB patients should therefore be assessed for HIV risk factors and advised to undergo HIV testing.

Elicitation of Neutralizing Antibody Responses to HIV-1 Immunization with Nanoparticle Vaccine Platforms.

A leading strategy for developing a prophylactic HIV-1 vaccine is the elicitation of antibodies that can neutralize a large fraction of circulating HIV-1 variants. However, a major challenge that has limited the effectiveness of current vaccine candidates is the extensive global diversity of the HIV-1 envelope protein (Env), the sole target for HIV-neutralizing antibodies. To address this challenge, various strategies incorporating Env diversity into the vaccine formulation have been proposed. Here, we assessed the potential of two such strategies that utilize a nanoparticle-based vaccine platform to elicit broadly neutralizing antibody responses. The nanoparticle immunogens developed here consisted of different formulations of Envs from strains BG505 (clade A) and CZA97 (clade C), attached to the N-termini of bacterial ferritin. Single-antigen nanoparticle cocktails, as well as mosaic nanoparticles bearing both Env trimers, elicited high antibody titers in mice and guinea pigs. Furthermore, serum from guinea pigs immunized with nanoparticle immunogens achieved autologous, and in some cases heterologous, tier 2 neutralization, although significant differences between mosaic and single-antigen nanoparticles were not observed. These results provide insights into the ability of different vaccine strategies for incorporating Env sequence diversity to elicit neutralizing antibodies, with implications for the development of broadly protective HIV-1 vaccines.

Use of fourth-generation rapid combined antigen and antibody diagnostic tests for the detection of acute HIV infection in a community centre for men who have sex with men, between 2016 and 2019.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the use of fourth-generation rapid diagnostic tests in identifying acute infection of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). METHODS: BCN Checkpoint promotes sexual health among men who have sex with men (MSM), with a focus on diagnosing HIV early, initiating combined antiretroviral treatment (cART) promptly, and recommending regular repeat testing for those who have tested negative. This cross-sectional study included all test results obtained at the centre between 25 March 2016 and 24 March 2019. The Alere™ HIV Combo (now rebranded to Determine™ HIV Ultra, from Abbott) was used to detect p24 antigen (p24 Ag) and/or immunoglobulin M (IgM) and G (IgG) antibodies to HIV-1/HIV-2 (HIV Ab). Rapid polymerase chain reaction (PCR) confirmatory testing and Western blot (WB) were performed for clients with a positive rapid test result. Confirmed HIV cases were promptly referred to the HIV unit for care and cART prescription. RESULTS: A total of 12,961 clients attended BCN Checkpoint during the study and 27,298 rapid tests were performed. 450 tests were found to be reactive, of which 430 confirmed as HIV-positive, representing a prevalence of 3.32%. Four confirmed cases (0.93%) were detected as "p24 Ag only", nine (2.09%) as "both p24 and HIV Ab" and 417 (96.98%) as "HIV Ab only". The "p24 Ag only" group had a 1-log higher viral load than the other groups and initiated treatment on the following working day. Overall, there were 20 false-positive results (0.07% and 4.44% of total and reactive tests, respectively), of which 10 positive for "p24 Ag only" and 10 for "HIV Ab only". CONCLUSIONS: Four Acute HIV Infections (AHI), with very high viral loads, have been detected with the "p24 Ag only" while the HIV Ab were still absent. Referral to the HIV unit and initiation of cART on the following working day contributed to improving persons' health and to reduce HIV transmission chain.

Seroprevalence and associated factors of HIV and Hepatitis C in Brazilian high-security prisons: A state-wide epidemiological study.

The prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) and the acquired immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is much higher in prisons than in community settings. Some explanatory factors for this burden include putative aspects of the prison environment, such as unprotected sexual relations and sexual violence, use of injectable drugs and syringe sharing. Nonetheless, efforts in better understanding the dynamics of both HCV and HIV are scarce in developing countries such as Brazil, which poses a risk not only to the inmates but to the community as well. In this investigation, we sought to determine the seroprevalence and sociodemographic and behavioral risk factors associated with HIV and anti-HCV antibodies among men detained at high-security institutions. This is an epidemiological, proportionally stratified observational study including 1,132 inmates aged 18 to 79 years-old (Mage = 32.58±10.18) from eleven high-security prisons located in the State of Paraná, Brazil. We found that HIV and anti-HCV prevalence were 1.6% (95% CI: 1.0-2.5) and 2.7% (95% CI: 1.0-2.5), respectively. Risk factors associated with HIV included not receiving intimate visits (OR = 8.80, 95% CI: 1.15-66.88), already having another sexually transmitted infection (OR = 3.89, 95% CI: 1.47-10.29), and reporting attendance in HIV preventive campaigns (OR = 4.24, 95% CI: 1.58-11.36). Moreover, anti-HCV seroprevalence was associated with higher age (OR = 4.03, 95% CI: 1.61-10.07), criminal recidivism (OR = 2.58, 95% CI 1.02-6.52), and the use of injectable drugs (OR = 7.32, 95% CI 3.36-15.92). Although prisons might increase the risk for acquiring and transmitting HIV and HCV, the adoption of permanent epidemiological surveillance programs could help reducing the circulation of viruses, involving strategies focusing on screening, treating, and preventing infections to assure proper prisoner health. Moreover, these policies need to take place inside and outside the prison environment to offer continued assistance to former prisoners once they leave the institution.

Evaluation of the Abbott ARCHITECT HIV Ag/Ab combo assay for determining recent HIV-1 infection.

BACKGROUND: Given the challenges and costs associated with implementing HIV-1 incidence assay testing, there is great interest in evaluating the use of commercial HIV diagnostic tests for determining recent HIV infection. A diagnostic test with the capability of providing reliable data for the determination of recent HIV infection without substantial modifications to the test protocol would have a significant impact on HIV surveillance. The Abbott ARCHITECT HIV Ag/Ab Combo Assay is an antigen/antibody immunoassay, which meets the criteria as the first screening test in the recommended HIV laboratory diagnostic algorithm for the United States. METHODS: In this study, we evaluated the performance characteristics of the ARCHITECT HIV Ag/Ab Combo signal-to-cutoff ratio (S/Co) for determining recent infection, including estimation of the mean duration of recent infection (MDRI) and false recent rate (FRR), and selection of recency cutoffs. RESULTS: The MDRI estimates for the S/Co recency cutoff of 400 is within the 4 to 12 months range recommended for HIV incidence assays, and the FRR rate for this cutoff was 1.5%. Additionally, ARCHITECT Combo S/Co values were compared relative to diagnostic test results from two prior prospective HIV-1 diagnostic studies in order to validate the use of the S/Co for both diagnostic and recency determination. CONCLUSION: Dual-use of the ARCHITECT Combo assay data for diagnostic and incidence purposes would reduce the need for separate HIV incidence testing and allow for monitoring of recent infection for incidence estimation and other public health applications.

Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-18: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15-49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000-18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit. FINDINGS: The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1-3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4-1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7-0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6-888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8-8120·3]) cases per 100 000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0-1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81·1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020. INTERPRETATION: Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.